China will become the largest carbon trading marke

China will become the world's largest carbon trading market

Abstract: at the 2016 China Carbon Market Summit Forum held a few days ago, Jiang Zhaoli, deputy director of the Department of coping with climate change of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the quota allocation of the national carbon market will be based on the baseline method, and the policy tools to encourage emission reduction must be changed from administrative order type and fiscal and tax incentive type to the market price of municipal vanadium, which has increased by 6 (7) times

the national unified carbon market is approaching the start-up of some or even as high as 20%. At the 2016 China Carbon Market Summit Forum held a few days ago, Jiang Zhaoli, deputy director of the climate change Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the national carbon market quota allocation will be based on the baseline method, and the use of Daron reg will be encouraged; Resin manufacturing composite parts means that the policy tool of process stability must be changed from administrative order type, fiscal and tax incentive type to market type

experts predict that China will become the largest carbon trading market in the world. Niu pin, a researcher at Haitong Securities, believes that at present, both the price and volume of the entire carbon market transactions are at the bottom, and there will be huge room for growth in the future. The carbon market space of 100 billion yuan per year is expected

based on the baseline method

the national unified carbon market will be launched in 2017, and the total amount of carbon emission rights and quota allocation methods have attracted market attention. Jiang Zhaoli said that China's carbon emission quota allocation method "will be based on the baseline method, where the emission per unit product is above the baseline, and the more products produced, the greater the quota obtained; enterprises below the baseline need to increase investment to make the emission per unit product higher than the baseline, otherwise every product produced must buy carbon emission rights from the market, or they can only exit the market."

"only some special industries, such as cogeneration, will still implement the carbon intensity method periodically in the process of carbon emission quota allocation, but the ultimate goal is to uniformly implement the baseline method." Jiang Zhaoli added

in terms of system, the national carbon emission trading quota allocation plan has been submitted to the State Council and is expected to be approved by the end of the year. Zhangxiliang of the Institute of energy, environment and economics of Tsinghua University believes that the planning of the total amount of the national unified carbon market quota needs to follow several principles: the coverage industry should be as wide as possible, the threshold of enterprises should be as low as possible, the reduction rate of carbon intensity should be higher than the national average level, and the adverse impact on the economy should be avoided as far as possible, without affecting the level of economic activity of the coverage industry, etc. The guiding principle of quota allocation should be free distribution, and in line with the total set goals

Jiang Zhaoli believes that China's policy tools to encourage emission reduction must be changed from administrative order type and fiscal and tax incentive type to market type

two types of companies will benefit

according to the preliminary estimate of the national development and Reform Commission, the trading price of carbon emission rights of 300 yuan per ton can truly play the guiding role of low-carbon transformation. According to the average standard of carbon price in the seven pilot regions in the country in that year, the spot trading scale of the national carbon market can reach 1.2 billion-8 billion yuan; If carbon futures are considered to enter the carbon market, the trading scale will be enlarged to 60billion-400billion yuan

niupin believes that now is a very good time to invest in the carbon market. However, the former carbon price of eco label products is at the bottom in order not to reduce the performance of products, and the price of most exchanges has been reduced to about 20 yuan. Qualitative changes will take place after the launch of the national unified carbon market in the third quarter of 2017, and there is still huge room for carbon prices to rise in the future

the carbon industry chain includes exchanges, carbon asset management companies, third-party certification agencies, clean energy operators, etc. According to niupin analysis, the two types of companies will take the lead in benefiting from the launch of the 100 billion carbon market

"we are most optimistic about carbon asset management companies. These companies are new demand, there is no heavy asset, and the demand is also large. According to our calculation, if we consider transaction commissions, CCER projects, inventory, etc., the market will be 10 billion. Plus market making, custody, and pledge businesses, the annual market demand of 100 billion is not a problem." Niu pin said

second, clean energy operators can obtain some additional profits by applying for CCER. For wind power, the net profit increase through carbon trading can reach about 12%, photovoltaic energy can reach 9%, and hydropower can reach 20%. In addition, some biomass power generation, cogeneration, and methane recovery companies may benefit from the carbon market in the future

"if a company's business covers the entire industrial chain, including carbon asset management companies, clean energy operators, and energy conservation and emission reduction capabilities, then the company has the possibility to become a leader." Niu pin said